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Fooled by Minimum Well Count? Part II

Fooled by Minimum Well Count? Part II

Presented by Randy Freeborn, Principal Industry Advisor, Aucerna

In Part I, Fooled by Minimum Well Count, we observed that it was highly unlikely that the minimum well count would result in a probability distribution that represented the population and that the important minimum is not the number of wells in the sample, but the number of wells being drilled.

Part II will describe a method to determine an inventory of possible population distributions and will show the effect that not knowing the true population distribution can have on probabilistic reserve estimates. You will leave understanding that no matter how many wells are drilled, the proven reserve will never converge to the mean and that conventional wisdom results in overestimation of proved reserves.

If you missed Part I, you are encouraged to view that video by clicking here in advance of this talk, but if you can’t you will still find value.

What will you learn?

  • Possible population distributions discussed in Part I are not reliable.
  • A better way to calculate population distributions.
  • A Monte Carlo process to estimate population and well count adjusted probability-based estimates for EUR.
  • For large well counts, EUR does not converge to the mean.
About the presenter
Randy Freeborn

Randy Freeborn

Principal Industry Advisor, Aucerna

Available recordings

Each recording contains the same content aside from the Q&A session specific to each region.
North America & Europe
Tuesday, June 9, 2020. 8:30 AM MDT | 9:30am CDT | 3:30 PM CET
Wednesday, June 10, 2020. 1:00 PM AEST | 11:00 AM SGT

About this webinar

This is a Recording from
  • June 9th (North America & Europe)
  • June 10th (Asia-Pacific)
Presented by
Randy Freeborn, Principal Industry Advisor, Aucerna

45 Minutes


Building on Part I, Fooled by Minimum Well Count, this talk will show how to incorporate an unknown population distribution and varying size drilling program into a probabilistic EUR. You will leave having a healthy mistrust of trumpet plots.

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