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In Part I, Fooled by Minimum Well Count, we observed that it was highly unlikely that the minimum well count would result in a probability distribution that represented the population and that the important minimum is not the number of wells in the sample, but the number of wells being drilled.
Part II will describe a method to determine an inventory of possible population distributions and will show the effect that not knowing the true population distribution can have on probabilistic reserve estimates. You will leave understanding that no matter how many wells are drilled, the proven reserve will never converge to the mean and that conventional wisdom results in overestimation of proved reserves.
If you missed Part I, you are encouraged to view that video by clicking here in advance of this talk, but if you can’t you will still find value.
Randy Freeborn is an expert in empirical forecasting, type wells and related technology. He is a thought leader at Aucerna, inventing technology and assisting clients. A 45-year professional engineer, he is a former SPE Distinguished Lecturer and is working with SPEE’s newest Monograph on type wells. Freeborn has prepared numerous technical papers for presentation at conferences, workshops and industry meetings and has been a guest lecturer at the University of Houston and Texas A&M.
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