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SPEE Monograph 3 provides guidance towards the minimum number of wells (sample size) required for a reliable type well. Missing from the guidance is an understanding that type well reliability depends on the number of sample wells and the number of wells that will be drilled using the type well. The talk will demonstrate how the guidance was determined, explore reasons why the sample wells may not represent the wells you plan to drill and pique your curiosity as to whether probability distribution might be a better confidence criterion than mean for confidence.
We draw two important conclusions:
Randy Freeborn is an expert in empirical forecasting, type wells and related technology. He is a thought leader at Aucerna, inventing technology and assisting clients. A 45-year professional engineer, he is a former SPE Distinguished Lecturer and is working with SPEE’s newest Monograph on type wells. Freeborn has prepared numerous technical papers for presentation at conferences, workshops and industry meetings and has been a guest lecturer at the University of Houston and Texas A&M.
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